Metals Mostly Fell, SHFE Zinc, SHFE Copper, and Coking Coal Dropped Over 1%, Gold Price Hit a New Record High, European Container Shipping Surged [SMM Midday Review]

SMM March 28 News: In the metal market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE lead fell 0.96%, SHFE zinc fell 1.58%, SHFE copper fell 1.4%, SHFE nickel rose 0.15%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.96%, and SHFE tin fell 0.22%. Additionally, alumina fell 1.17%, lithium carbonate fell 0.43%, and silicon metal rose 0.87%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.25%. The ferrous metals series mostly declined, with iron ore down 0.64%, rebar down 0.59%, HRC down 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.63%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 1.4% and coke fell 1.04%. In overseas metals, as of 11:40, most base metals fell. LME lead, LME copper, and LME zinc all dropped within 0.5%, LME aluminum fell 0.51%, LME tin fell 0.62%, and LME nickel rose 0.08%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.69%, hitting a record high of $3,117.5/oz during the session! COMEX silver rose 0.48%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.75%, reaching a record high of 721.76 yuan/gram during the session, and SHFE silver rose 1.54%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures rose 5.14% to 2,266.3 points. As of 11:40 on March 28, some futures midday quotes: March 28 SMM Metal Spot Prices Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Approaching the end of March, domestic aluminum ingot inventory dropped sharply by 25,000 mt mid-week, nearing the 800,000 mt mark. According to SMM statistics, on March 27, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas was 802,000 mt, of which 676,000 mt was tradable, down 25,000 mt from Monday and 32,000 mt WoW. This phenomenon is mainly due to the steady increase in outflows from warehouses, with outflows from major consumption areas in the past week at 128,400 mt, up 1,300 mt WoW, and weekly outflows since March maintaining around 130,000 mt... Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [Ten Departments: Aim to Increase Domestic Bauxite Resources by 3%-5% and Secondary Aluminum Production to Over 15 Million mt by 2027] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and nine other departments issued the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)". By 2027, the resilience and security level of the industry chain and supply chain will be significantly improved, and the overall development level of the industry chain will lead globally. The aluminum resource guarantee capacity will be greatly enhanced, aiming to increase domestic bauxite resources by 3%-5% and secondary aluminum production to over 15 million mt. The industrial structure will be further optimized, and the construction level of aluminum processing industrial clusters will be further improved. The level of green development will continue to rise, with the proportion of aluminum production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level increasing to over 30%, and capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level completing technological transformation or being phased out. The proportion of clean energy use will exceed 30%, and the comprehensive utilization rate of new red mud resources will be over 15%. Technological innovation capabilities will be significantly enhanced, breaking through a batch of key technologies such as low-carbon smelting and precision processing, and cultivating new growth points for aluminum consumption, basically meeting the needs of major projects and key model products. Looking ahead to 2035, the quality and efficiency of industrial development will continue to improve, leading the global aluminum industry. The aluminum resource guarantee capacity will be significantly enhanced, the industrial structure and layout will be further optimized, new advantages in global aluminum industry cooperation and competition will be greatly strengthened, and significant achievements will be made in high-end, intelligent, and green development, forming a comprehensive high-quality development situation. Click for details [National Energy Administration: 256 Million Green Certificates Issued in February, Up 5.44 Times YoY] The National Energy Administration released data on the issuance and trading of renewable energy green electricity certificates in February 2025. In February 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 256 million green certificates, up 5.44 times YoY, of which 162 million were tradable, accounting for 63.32%, involving 64,000 renewable energy power generation projects. This period issued 163 million green certificates corresponding to renewable energy electricity in January 2025, accounting for 63.70%. From January to February 2025, the National Energy Administration issued a total of 488 million green certificates, of which 312 million were tradable. As of February 2025, the cumulative number of green certificates issued nationwide was 5.442 billion, of which 3.691 billion were tradable. [PBOC Net Withdraws 14.5 Billion Yuan from Open Market Today] The PBOC conducted 78.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at a rate of 1.50% (unchanged from the previous rate). As 93 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the PBOC net withdrew 14.5 billion yuan from the open market today, with a net withdrawal of 146.4 billion yuan for the week. ► March 28 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market RMB Central Parity Rate: 1 USD to 7.1752 Yuan USD: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 104.29. Concerns over the US new tariff plan have fueled market worries about global trade friction. The US is set to implement reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which may stimulate inflation, curb economic growth, and escalate trade disputes. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that the Fed's current "moderately restrictive" monetary policy is appropriate given the high uncertainty and rapid adjustment of US government policies. The market is awaiting the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to be released later today. Following the Fed's recent decision to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, this data may influence expectations for rate cuts this year. Other Currencies: AUD/USD fell during the Asian session, with the pair stabilizing near the 55-day moving average, needing new catalysts to break through; key risk event: April 1 RBA, expected to keep rates unchanged, statement is key, Australia will hold elections on May 3, and the market is cautious about new fiscal commitments. (Huitong Finance) Data: Today, the UK January goods trade balance - seasonally adjusted, UK January seasonally adjusted trade balance, UK February seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, Germany April GfK consumer confidence index, UK Q4 production method GDP YoY final, Germany March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone March economic sentiment index, Eurozone March industrial sentiment index, Eurozone March consumer confidence index final, US February personal spending MoM, US February PCE price index YoY, US February core PCE price index YoY, Canada January seasonally adjusted GDP MoM, US March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final, and other data will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will speak on the economy; the Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from the March monetary policy meeting; the 2025 Zhongguancun Forum Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 27 to 31, co-hosted by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the China Association for Science and Technology, and the Beijing Municipal Government. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, crude oil futures fluctuated rangebound, with WTI up 0.01% and Brent down 0.03%. The market is assessing the outlook for tight crude supply, and oil prices may record gains for the third consecutive week. The US has increased restrictions on crude exports from Iran and Venezuela. Analysts said signs of improved US crude demand are supporting oil prices. The US is the world's largest crude consumer, and data showed that the country's commercial crude inventory fell more than expected last week. US crude inventory data released on Wednesday showed that US supply is tightening, with inventories down 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels last week, compared to an expected drop of 956,000 barrels. Traders said that given lingering concerns about global economic growth prospects, the oil price rally is not expected to last. (Webstock Inc.) CITIC Securities research report pointed out that, overall, considering the recent US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and geopolitical disturbances, Brent crude oil prices in 2025 are expected to rise slightly to $70-75/barrel. (Cailian Press) Spot Market Overview: ► Although copper prices fell, downstream buyers are still reluctant to restock, and suppliers had to lower premiums to sell [SMM South China Copper Spot] ► Copper price pullback stimulated downstream restocking sentiment, and market activity warmed up [SMM North China Copper Spot] ► Spot performance improved, and aluminum ingot inventory neared the 800,000 mt mark at the end of March [SMM Analysis] ► [SMM Brief Analysis] Iron ore prices turned from weak to strong this week, and are expected to continue fluctuating upward next week ► [SMM Black Party] Where is the "breakthrough" path for steel prices in Q2? Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later, please refresh to view~